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    行业新闻当前位置:网站首页 > 新闻资讯 > 行业新闻 > 正文

    圆钢或高位承压震荡关注关口区资金方向

    作者:山东岳达钢铁有限公司 来源:http://www-tjjrygt2-com.ellabora.com 日期:2022/1/17 19:46:48

    现货:短期61.5%PB粉港口报价(车板湿吨)部分上调:曹妃甸500(0),日照505(+5),连云港505(0);1月新加坡掉期70.58(美元/吨)(微调)、普氏62%钢材指数71.25(-0.25),BDI指数(航运)回落。澳洲重要港口11月对华出口钢材创7个月新低。中冶研究院称中国明年圆钢进口量或超10亿吨。当前三大钢材山降低成本延续扩产、出口量增加、加速布局中国市场,冬季钢材需求下降,将使市场承压震荡。
     
    宏观及外盘因素:政治局:中国明年继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策。明年楼市政策即将定调:涉及相关税费调整、微调限购等措施,刺激市场需求或成主线。11月CPI数据周三公布低通胀格局已确立,专家建议降准。美国11月就业大增32.1万创近3年之**。周五收盘至今早盘前道指涨0.33%,美元指数延续上涨,原油、美黄金延续下跌,伦铜承压下跌,国内金属工业品或承压调整震荡。
     
    简要策略:短期关注490-500区资金增减情况,或反弹高位承压震荡波动,防范冲高回落洗盘;圆钢期货再创调整以来的新低波段操作上钢材1505持多10%,若有效下破490平多并反手做空,495-505承压恢复弱势平多补空。操作细节可咨询中期钢铁产业策略部136-7209-7663。短期操作螺纹钢1505持多15%,若有效下破490平多并反手做空,495-505承压恢复弱势平多补空。
     
    策略分析:降息及稳增长政策短期刺激市场预期,但长期供需格局难改,新环保法或成新影响因素。受限于冬季钢材需求疲弱,未来供超于求现状、预期及市场和环保压力加大,期货料维持承压震荡偏弱格局。短期震荡中或有反弹,此时期可逐步布局关键区位操作资金,后期将有新波动,细节可电话咨询。我部门深入一线调研,研判期、现货中长线布局策略及实战投资方案,专注量化交易实战,策略指导交易。

    在日前举办的“钢铁行业‘新知识、新技术、新理念’高峰论坛”上,中钢协副会长王晓齐表示,目前钢铁行业**突出的问题是账款大幅增加,已由2013年年底4300亿元增加到目前的4500亿元。今年钢铁行业虽然表面上有利润,但利润与应付账款基本相当,部分企业资金已经非常紧张。

    中钢期货副总经理陈东卫认为,在资金链越来越紧的情况下,钢铁行业未来赚大钱的机会不多,受伤的可能性反而很大。“利用期货管理生产经营不但能够使企业免于受伤,而且能增加其核心竞争力。”陈东卫称。在她看来,未来2—3年之内,如果钢铁企业还不利用期货管理风险,必定会经历一个被淘汰的过程。

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